Most recent columns

Pim Poppe en Erik Kooistra: AFM Good Practice on model risk management deserves attention

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:44:28 +0100

By Pim Poppe (Managing Partner) & Erik Kooistra (Service Line Lead Modelvalidatie), Probability & Partners

Not every publication that deserves attention actually receives it. The AFM’s Good Practice on model risk management for asset managers is a clear example. The document was released publicly in November 2025, yet it has attracted little attention in the press or in our day‑to‑day work. Most likely, many were preoccupied with year‑end priorities — a good reason to revisit the AFM’s perspective on model risk management for asset managers.

Pim Poppe: Tech away?

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 15:18:54 +0100

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Pim Poppe, Managing Partner at Probability & Partners

Have you read the DNB report ‘Risks for Financial Institutions due to Exposure to Tech Shares’? I have. Today. The report was published just before Christmas and may therefore not have received the attention it deserves. I have given the report some thought and it is worth taking a moment to consider it.

Pim Poppe: AI in risk management

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 15:46:57 +0100

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Pim Poppe, Managing Partner at Probability & Partners

On 20 November, I had the privilege of chairing the seminar “Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Crypto & Digital Assets” for Financial Investigator. In my introductory talk, I gave a brief overview of how AI has changed Probability & Partners over the past eighteen months. When you make a list like that, you realise how quickly the world is changing and how the work of a risk management consultancy firm is adapting to the possibilities and needs of today.

Pim Poppe: Are country risks making a comeback?

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 12:13:11 +0100

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Pim Poppe, Managing Partner at Probability & Partners

When I started working as a young and eager macroeconomist at ING's Economic Bureau in 1989, one of my first tasks was to assess country risk. At the time, ING (or rather its legal predecessor NMB) had built up enormous exposure in Central America with Brady bonds, so country risk was by no means trivial.

Pim Poppe: Coming and going

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 10:08:51 +0100

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Pim Poppe, Managing Partner at Probability & Partners

Civilisations, hegemonies, forms of government, leaders, truths: they come and go. It is a rhythm of generations or centuries, not of years or decades.