Most recent columns

Gerd-Jan van Wiggen: The clause that only comes into play when things go wrong

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:49:39 +0200

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Gerd-Jan van Wiggen, Partner at Probability & Partners

As a consultant and investor, I have studied thousands of external disclosures from banks over the past 25 years. During that period, we have seen a major financial crisis, as well as significant changes in legislation and regulation. As a result, I have developed an instinct for the way in which matters are phrased.

Gerd-Jan van Wiggen: How do you break a bank?

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 08:16:09 +0200

By Gerd-Jan van Wiggen, Partner at Probability & Partners

After the holiday period, it is always nice to come home knowing that a number of interesting publications have been released. One of these is the ECB paper setting out the results of the reverse stress test, which was published on 31 July.

Gerd-Jan van Wiggen & Laurent Claassen: Building resilience to geopolitical risks

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 14:05:36 +0200

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Gerd-Jan van Wiggen, Partner at Probability & Partners, and Laurent Claassen, Senior Advisor to Boards & Executives | Lecturer & Speaker

The world order is in flux. US dominance is being challenged by China, and President Trump’s second term is creating further uncertainties in the areas of international trade, economic stability and geopolitical alliances.

Gerd-Jan van Wiggen: SpaceX IPO, where did I see this before?

Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:36:42 +0200

By Gerd-Jan van Wiggen, Partner at Probability & Partners

Last Friday, when I was following the SpaceX listing, my mind wandered off to the late 1990s, when I was looking to invest in the now infamous Lernout & Hauspie.

Gerd-Jan van Wiggen: From private credit to public crisis

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:38:56 +0200

_{This column was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.}

By Gerd-Jan van Wiggen, Partner at Probability & Partners

After years of strong returns and high expectations, we have seen turmoil emerge in the private credit markets in recent months. Since the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor last year, there has been a significant increase in focus on the quality of private credit exposures. There is concern that standards for credit approval and monitoring are too low and that, as a result, private credit portfolios may contain many loans on which repayments are either non-existent or limited.