Columbia Threadneedle: Forse rentestap geeft ECB meer vrijheid

Columbia Threadneedle: Forse rentestap geeft ECB meer vrijheid

July 21, 2022

Interest Rates ECB
Rente (02) euro geld monetair beleid.jpg

Dave Chappell, Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager bij Columbia Threadneedle Investments, reageert op de renteverhoging door de ECB:

'The ECB finally stepped away from eight years of negative rates today, choosing to double the pre-announced size of the first rate hike, citing the Governing Council’s updated assessment of inflation risks. Expectations had risen in recent days, following ‘sources’ suggesting a 50bp move was being considered. By taking a larger initial step, the Council can now shift to a meeting by meeting assessment of the future path of rates. Markets expect a further 140bps of rate hikes into year end, suggesting a steady path of half percent moves per meeting. Deteriorating economic conditions over the coming months may lead to an early curtailment of the tightening cycle however.

In what could be described as the worst possible timing, the breakdown of the Italian coalition government and resignation of its leader Mario Draghi has led to an abrupt widening of Italian yield spreads to German Bunds, a move that could become an obstacle to the smooth transmission of monetary policy. When repeatedly probed during the press conference however, President Lagarde was wary not to divulge whether a tightening of financial conditions, driven by self-destructive domestic policies, would warrant the implementation of the new Transmission Protection Instrument. At this stage, given the lack of contagion to other periphery yields, we do not believe it does.'

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