ASI: De beurzen en de Fed, de kip of het ei

ASI: De beurzen en de Fed, de kip of het ei

United States Politics
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Hieronder vindt u het commentaar van Aberdeen Standard Investments op de Amerikaanse verkiezingen.

Aberdeen Standard Investments Chief Economist Jeremy Lawson:

“The much hyped blue wave has not materialized and, at best, we may now be looking at a blue redoubt in the Midwest. But it’s too early to call the result, with everything from the maintenance of the status quo, to a Biden presidency with a split congress still on the table. As a result we are seeing trades fall away that were heavily skewed to this being a very clear Democrat win and markets drifting looking for stronger signals to latch on to.

Investors are in for a long wait for this to be resolved. The outcome of the presidential race is potentially up in the air beyond this week and the Senate’s makeup unlikely to be finalised until January.”

Aberdeen Standard Investments Investment Director James Athey:

“The reaction from markets so far has been distinctly orderly. We’ve seen investors pull back on their calculations that Biden was going to win convincingly, but it is relatively quiet. It’s too close and early to say which way this will go so sitting and waiting is the order of the day.

“The lack of clarity refocuses minds on what the Fed will do next. Part of the quiet in markets will be grounded in a knowledge that the Fed will step in if we do see meaningful volatility. There’s a dangerous chicken and egg element to this whereby markets are calm partly because they know the Fed will step in, but the Fed won’t step in if things stay completely calm.

“A result this close puts more pressure on the Fed. A divided Congress, let alone a disputed result, are bad omens for the prospects of a fresh stimulus package. The lack of fiscal stimulus will sooner or later require the Fed to react, and that’s worrying. The tools the Fed is using have long produced unhealthy distortions in asset prices and markets are becoming ever more programmed to know that the central bank will step in at the sight of trouble. That kind of dependency is not healthy.”