ASI: Impact van Abe’s vertrek op Japanse beleggingen gering

ASI: Impact van Abe’s vertrek op Japanse beleggingen gering

Japan
Japanse economie.jpg

Het vertrek van de Japanse premier Shinzo Abe veroorzaakt politieke en economische onzekerheid, maar heeft nauwelijks invloed op de resultaten van Japanse bedrijven. Dat komt omdat veel Japanse bedrijven een aanzienlijk deel van hun activiteiten naar het buitenland hebben uitgebreid, en daardoor minder afhankelijk zijn van het binnenlands economisch beleid. Bovendien zullen de hervormingen op vlak van corporate governance niet makkelijk teruggedraaid worden. Voor ASI’s beleggingen in Japanse ondernemingen verandert het vertrek van Abe daarom weinig.

Dat is de analyse van Kwok Chern-Yeh, hoofd Japanse aandelenbeleggingen bij vermogensbeheerder Aberdeen Standard Investments.

Hieronder zijn volledige commentaar:

“Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation, on concerns of ill health, has brought an end to a period of stability in Japan that lasted for seven and a half years, leaving a legacy that underpinned a corporate and economic revival in Japan. With uncertainties around the political transition ahead, the worry is that Abenomics, the signature monetary and fiscal policy programme during Abe’s tenure, could soon end. In reaction to the news, the stock market fell, and the yen strengthened.

“The leadership transition is expected to be conducted quickly, and the next leader will complete Abe’s term, which lasts until September 2021. But there is no clear successor to Abe within the ruling party, even though a handful of candidates are capable of succeeding him. Adding to concerns that Abe’s policies could be reversed, at least one of the leading candidates has expressed differing views. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s term ends in April 2023.

Looking back at Abe’s major reforms the commitment to corporate governance has been the most meaningful for Japanese equity investors. Amongst corporates, the implementation of Japan’s first ever corporate governance and stewardship codes has resulted in sharply higher awareness of shareholders’ interests. The structures that have supported this change are unlikely to be quickly – or easily – dismantled.

“We expect the impact of Abe’s resignation on the fundamentals of our holdings to be limited. The fact is that a rising number of Japanese corporates are now less impacted by domestic economic policies: many have looked abroad for growth, diversifying their operations from a maturing home market. The health of the global economy and the ability of companies to balance risks and opportunities in their businesses, are more important determinants of equity returns in Japan – as is the sustainability of improvements in governance. In addition, these companies have fared well even in the more uncertain times prior to Abe’s tenure, and their prospects are not reliant on favourable domestic policies or regulations. We continue to see good potential for our holdings in the medium to longer term.”