Monex: EUR/USD herstelt licht van daling vorige week
Monex: EUR/USD herstelt licht van daling vorige week
Hieronder volgt een kort commentaar in het Engels van Ranko Berich, Head of Research bij Monex Europe op de Amerikaanse dollar, euro en het Britse pond.
EUR
The euro held steady against the dollar this morning after falling 0.50 percentage points over the last week, with the largest daily drop being on Friday after the releases of the eurozone PMI figures. This week will be another eventful week, with German GDP figures and the German IFO Business Climate and Expectations index scheduled for release on Tuesday. EURUSD will likely also take cues from the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, an event at which major central bankers, finance ministers and financial market participants come together to discuss monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook. The event has created significant FX volatility in the past, and this year markets are even more on guard for clues regarding the next possible monetary moves considering the uncertainty the pandemic brought to markets. Today is a light day on the eurozone data front, leaving the euro at the mercy of broader risk sentiment.
USD
Although dollar weakness seemed to be the status quo in August, the greenback managed to steady itself over the last week. A less dovish than expected set of FOMC meeting minutes provided a level of support for the dollar, despite growing virus concerns in the US. This week the focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, with Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell expected to deliver a speech on the Fed’s long-awaited monetary policy framework review. The dollar is likely to take a beating if Powell communicates a greater tolerance for high inflation, adding to the view that the Fed may be set to announce an average inflation target in the coming meetings once the policy framework review is completed. Any additional monetary measures, such as yield curve control and explicit forward guidance, are likely to be discussed also as the Fed wishes to use every communications tool it has available to outline these measures prior to their announcement. Additionally, over the weekend, the Financial Times broke that Donald Trump is looking to fast track an experimental vaccine produced by AstraZeneca and Oxford University ahead of the November election. Although, it must be noted that this is pure conjecture at the moment. Outside of Jackson Hole, the data calendar for the US is loaded towards the back-end of the week. The second reading of Q2 GDP is set for release on Thursday with July’s PCE inflation data due out on Friday.
GBP
Sterling enjoyed a brief spike of strength on Friday, before paring back its gains, leaving both GBPUSD and GBPEUR trading broadly unchanged this morning when compared to Thursday’s trading ranges. Yet another turn of the Brexit merry-go-round occurred last week, with EU negotiator Michel Barnier warning of wasted time in the latest round of talks. His UK equivalent, David Frost, criticised the EU’s position on state aid and fisheries, as well as the EU’s refusal to progress talks further until these issues are resolved. Friday’s data included very strong readings for the flash releases or Markit’s purchasing managers indices for August. Both the services and manufacturing indices rose to levels suggesting rapid expansion from the trough in Q2. Industrial order expectations, as recorded by the Confederation of British Industry, remained negative, however. This will be a relatively quiet week for sterling, with the CBI releasing sales survey data tomorrow, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking at the US Federal Reserve’s virtual symposium on Friday.