Monex: Meer vraag naar safe havens - USD en US treasuries - door zorgen over coronavirus

Monex: Meer vraag naar safe havens - USD en US treasuries - door zorgen over coronavirus

Currency US-dollar
Geld dollar.jpg

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Ranko Berich, Head of Research bij Monex Europe op de koersbewegingen van de euro, het Britse pond en de Amerikaanse dollar.

USD

The dollar continued its broad advance yesterday as risk appetite favoured an influx into the greenback and US Treasury markets. Yields on the US 2-year fell by 6.5 basis points yesterday, while the 10-year yield fell nearly 8 bps. Markets have become increasingly numb to the impeachment trial as fears over the coronavirus take over. Yesterday, the US raised its travel alert for China to level 3, its second highest risk level, and urged citizens to reconsider travelling to mainland China. Additionally, the US government plan to repatriate citizens from the Wuhan Tianhe airport tonight local time, while the governments of the UK and Japan are considering similar measures. Markets are yet to hear any credible projections of how widespread and fatal the coronavirus is, which will prove key to pricing assets accurately, while macroeconomic policy responses are also subdued until the epidemic is contained. Both the projected damage and policy response will be key for financial markets that are trading blindly without any direction in sentiment from Chinese markets and investors thus far. This heightened risk-off climate is likely to persist until more clarity is given.

EUR

The single currency was one of the best performing G10 currencies yesterday outside of the standard risk-off coinages. Abating political risk in Italy was coupled with positive undertones from the German Ifo business climate index, despite the headline figure undershooting expectations. The headline figure was skewed by weaker expectations for the construction and services sectors, but by contrast, both current and forward-looking sentiment continued to improve in manufacturing and trade sectors which is consistent with a gradual re-acceleration of the industrial sector. ECB executive board member Yves Mersch warned yesterday that loose monetary policy in the Eurozone calls for heightened vigilance over financial-stability consequences after stating that euro assets are “very elevated”.

GBP

Sterling is again on the back foot this morning, having steadily weakened against the US dollar over the course of yesterday. No headline or news release was immediately behind the weakness, and there has been no significant change in market pricing of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting, as Overnight Index Swap markets continue to trade with an approximately 55%-60% implied probability of a rate cut, broadly unchanged from the end of last week.