VanEck: Goud wint aan momentum op weg naar 2020

VanEck: Goud wint aan momentum op weg naar 2020

January 22, 2020

Commodities Equity
Goud2.jpg

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Joe Foster, portfoliomanager en strateeg bij VanEck, op de goudprijs. Lees in de meegestuurde Monthly Gold Commentary zijn volledige commentaar.

The gold market was impressive in December for what didn’t happen over the holidays. Net speculative positioning on Comex (New York Commodities Exchange) has stood near all-time highs since the gold price peaked in September. This potentially made the gold market vulnerable to a sello, especially during thin holiday trading. However, gold didn’t sell down, it actually trended higher into year-end. This price action suggests that positioning has experienced a structural shift to higher levels as investors have become comfortable holding long positions. For the month, gold advanced $53.29 (3.6%) to $1,517.27 per ounce.

The gold market found support from the dollar as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to the bottom of its recent range. Gold was also supported by strong advances in metals prices, especially copper and palladium, as the U.S. and China put their economic war on hold on December 14 to announce details of the rst stage of a trade deal.   

Gold wasn’t deterred by the booming stock market, which continued to post all-time highs. It has become obvious to us that stocks are being pumped up by liquidity supplied by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and corporate buy-backs. According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2019 through December 5, investors pulled $135 billion from U.S. stock-focused funds

for the biggest annual withdrawal on record. Investor selling has been more than o set by net corporate purchases, which Goldman Sachs  gures will total $480 billion in 2019. Meanwhile, since September, the Fed has pumped over $400 billion into the  nancial system with its purchase of treasuries aimed at propping up the dysfunctional repo market. The Fed plans to continue these purchases into 2020 at the rate of $60 billion per month. Gold was able to trade higher with the stock market because a market that trades on liquidity, rather than fundamentals, is vulnerable to shocks, a drop in liquidity or other risks.

Related posts