Monex: Zorgen handel en geopolitiek vergroten volatiliteit op valutamarkten

December 4, 2019

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Ranko Berich, Head of Research bij Monex Europe op de koersbewegingen van de euro, het Britse pond en de Amerikaanse dollar.

EUR

After a sharp rally on Monday, the euro consolidated its gains yesterday, still managing to close slightly higher against the US dollar. Tensions between Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump were in focus during yesterday’s NATO summit, with the US President criticising his French equivalent for his allegations that the military alliance was suffering “brain death”. The US has threatened to implement sanctions on French imports in retaliation for France’s Digital Services tax. As today’s formal NATO talks start today, any further rifts between the US and Europe will be under the spotlight.

GBP

Sterling has extended its rally this morning, reaching its strongest levels against the US dollar since May. Political polls continue to show the Conservatives enjoying a commanding lead, and betting markets this morning are trading the likelihood of a Tory majority with an implied probability of roughly 70%. Leaders gathered in London ahead of this week’s NATO summit. The photo opportunity proceeded without much sterling relevant news, as Boris Johnson appears set on avoiding too much media attention on any contact with Donald Trump. Johnson did, however, make comments yesterday in support of a digital sales tax. A similar tax in France has caused threats of tariffs by the US.

USD

The broad dollar regained some momentum over the past 24 hours, as Donald Trump said that he was comfortable with waiting until after the 2020 presidential election to strike a trade deal with China. Elsewhere, the House of Representatives voted in favour of legislation imposing sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights abuses against Muslim minorities, another potential source of escalation in trade tensions. Tariffs on consumer goods are due to go up on December 15th, and if imposed will carry further costs for the US and global economy. Bloomberg is reporting this morning that “people familiar” with US-China talks believe both sides are moving closer to a deal, despite the heated rhetoric.