BNY Mellon's Newton: Commentaar van Howard Cunningham op de nieuwste Brexitdeal
BNY Mellon's Newton: Commentaar van Howard Cunningham op de nieuwste Brexitdeal
Hieronder het commentaar van Howard Cunningham, Fixed Income Manager bij BNY Mellon's Newton, op de nieuwste Brexitdeal tussen de EU en het Verenigd Koninkrijk.
Howard Cunningham, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Newton Investment Management
‘We have been here before, with a Prime Minister agreeing a deal with the EU, but uniting the DUP/Brexit Party on the one side and the Scottish Nationalists on the other in opposing it, so the maths of getting the deal passed still look tricky. However, two moves could push it over the line. That is if PM Johnson is able to convince the EU27 to say ‘this deal or no deal, and no extension’ (which seems unlikely), or the Labour Party’s apparent pledge to put the deal to a referendum. The former would incentivise those afraid of no deal to vote for it, and the latter may persuade the DUP and hard line Brexiteers it might be a choice between this deal and no Brexit.’
‘In the event of a deal there is further upside for sterling (c5%) but downside for gilts (albeit limited due to the weaker global economic backdrop and low bond yields elsewhere).
‘In the unlikely event of an abrupt no deal Brexit on 31st October, sterling downside is greater, while gilt yields would fall, at least initially, but longer term threats to their safe-haven status would surface.
‘If nothing is resolved this month, and an extension granted for a referendum or general election, gilts and sterling will remain stuck in no man’s land, given the outcome of either is very unpredictable.’