Natixis Investment Managers: Commentaar Esty Dwek op stemming Brits parlement

September 5, 2019

Onderstaand het marktcommentaar van Esty Dwek, Head of Global Market Strategy van Dynamic Solutions, onderdeel van Natixis Investment Managers, naar aanleiding van de stemming in het Britse parlement van gisteravond.

•The most likely outcome for now is that a general election will be agreed (only) once the three month delay is guaranteed and non-reversible.

•We can see from the pound that markets expect Boris Johnson to win the election, and therefore bring back the no-deal risk.

•Our view has been that a version of Mrs May’s deal could still get approved, and if Mr Johnson does win the election, that may be what he is hoping to achieve, though he has seemed increasingly comfortable with no-deal exit.

•We still see a no-deal as a lower probability outcome, but cannot exclude it entirely.

•Parliament is likely to continue to block this option as much as they can, possibly trying to force Mr Johnson to negotiate more openly with the EU.

•Uncertainty will continue to weigh on sterling and European assets, as the Brexit saga is nowhere near over