ECB: de commentaren van ASI, LGIM, Monex en DWS op het ECB beleid

ECB: de commentaren van ASI, LGIM, Monex en DWS op het ECB beleid

July 25, 2019

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Onderstaand de commentaren van Hetal Mehta, Senior European Economist bij vermogensbeheerder Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM),  Gerry Fowler, beleggingsstrateeg bij vermogensbeheerder Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI), Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe en Ulrike Kastens, econoom bij DWS, op de de uitkomsten van de ECB-vergadering van donderdagmiddag.

Hetal Mehta, Senior European Economist at Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM), on the ECB monetary policy meeting:

'The ECB might have disappointed those looking for an immediate rate cut after the spate of weak sentiment data, but their statement of intent is clear: easing is coming, and soon. A tiered deposit rate, more QE and rate cuts are all options on the menu; Draghi and the rest of the Governing Council are trying to show that they have not run out of tools. Shoring up their credibility is clearly a key priority and they cannot deny any longer that inflation expectations are anchored.'

Gerry Fowler, beleggingsstrateeg bij vermogensbeheerder Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI):

'Draghi and the ECB have made a habit of dovishly surprising markets in recent years - but they couldn’t manage it today. Rates weren’t cut further into negative territory but this is still likely in September. Asset purchases may be coming too. Markets so far haven’t moved much on the news with the euro and bund yields modestly lower. This means the bar is not quite as high as it might have been for the Fed next week. We expect them to cut rates there but easing from the ECB and a weaker euro today would have made it more difficult for Powell to avoid a renewed tweet-storm or the potential for outright USD intervention from President Trump.'

Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist with Monex Europe:
Only a macroeconomic miracle can keep European Central Bank President Mario Draghi from further accommodative action after he stressed that several policy parameters are slipping further away. During the press conference, Draghi emphasized that both realized and projected inflation expectations have fallen far below the ECB’s targets. It's well-known that Draghi checks underneath his bed for the 'deflationary spiral' boogeyman before sleeping. It’s therefore unsurprising the rate statement was overflowing with monetary accommodative options that the ECB wants to keep open for itself. This should prevent deflationary expectations from becoming an ECB-existential self-defeating prophecy.
 
The re-introduction of the easing bias (rates at the same level or lower at least until the first half of 2020) combined with an explicit mention in the rate statement that options for a restart of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program are researched, show how seriously the ECB takes the recent worsening in realized and expected inflation. One could almost hear the desperation in Draghi’s voice that global economic conditions continue to weigh mostly on manufacturing, while the transmission of higher wages in rising inflation takes longer than expected. Add to this that Draghi dutifully repeated his pledges for more reforms in Eurozone countries and his observation that for many EZ countries there is room for more fiscal spending, and it seems like he is paving the way for his successor Christine Lagarde to push this agenda item more to counterbalance external negative risks and a broken wage-inflation transmission mechanism.
 
Today, Draghi was mostly focussed on keeping all options open for the coming September meeting. It should be noted, though, that the Governing Council was not unanimous on what should be done, which leaves some room for some hawkish policy surprises, especially as Lagarde may head the ECB in a less dovish way than her predecessor Draghi. Nevertheless, as all of the options currently on the table are strongly dovish and the ECB at the moment already sees most policy parameters are worsening, the euro may come under further selling pressure in the months leading up to the September meeting.

Ulrike Karsten, econoom bij DWS :

The ECB now rules nothing out. The European Central Bank announces a major package of measures. Delivery is likely to be in September.

Although the European economy still seems pretty good, leading indicators and the international trade conflict have clouded the outlook. That was how the ECB President, Mario Draghi, summed up the situation at Thursday's ECB meeting. And the less than positive German Ifo figures released today tend to support the view that the prospects are a bit less bright. With economic risks growing and inflation set to remain below target for the foreseeable future, the central bank is impelled to take action. And we expect it to do so on a large scale, with interest rate cuts for the deposit rate, a tiering system for the use of the deposit facility, a further extension of forward guidance and the relaunch of an asset purchase program.

In our opinion, the announcement of this catalogue of measures and the emphasis that 2 percent is a symmetrical inflation target indicate that even looking ahead to the longer term no normalisation of monetary policy can be seen. However, we doubt whether these measures will be sufficient to generate a significant economic boost. Not least because it is also the global economy that is dragging on Europe. In addition, Draghi stressed once again that politics, whether through structural reforms or fiscal measures, has its role to play.

Overall, the ECB therefore confirms our view that the low interest rate environment will remain with us for a very long time to come. With all its advantages, and all its risks.

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