M&G: Boris Johnson is slecht nieuws voor gilts

M&G: Boris Johnson is slecht nieuws voor gilts

Fixed Income Politics UK
Britse vlag.jpg

Hieronder vindt u een korte reactie van Tristan Hanson, fondsmanager bij de Britse vermogensbeheerder M&G, over Boris Johnson die vandaag is gekozen tot nieuwe premier van het Verenigd Koninkrijk. Volgens M&G zal Johnson de economie proberen aan te jagen door de staatsschuld op te krikken en de belastingen te verlagen. Dit is slecht nieuws voor Britse staatsobligaties, zelfs als de Britse centrale bank besluit om de rente te verlagen en QE te hervatten.

"Johnson’s attitude to fiscal stimulus and taxation is interesting. Based on the limited information provided during his campaign, there is a probability that Johnson will look to engineer an economic stimulus funded by higher government borrowing and lower taxes. So Brexit, or no Brexit, the multi-year outlook for gilts is dangerous at today’s extremely low level of yields, even if the Bank of England cuts interest rates and resumes QE. Tax cuts and higher fiscal spending is a recipe for continued gains for the stock market but the direction of sterling and Brexit developments will play an equally significant role. It is too soon to think of longer-term consequences and how the many uncertainties will unfold. Moreover, as we have seen since the 2016 referendum, global developments can be even more important than Brexit for future returns from UK assets", aldus Hanson.​