Monex: Fed wacht eerst ontwikkelingen af alvorens de koers te wijzigen

Monex: Fed wacht eerst ontwikkelingen af alvorens de koers te wijzigen

January 31, 2019

Monetary policy
Bart Hordijk - Monex Europe.jpg

Hieronder volgt een commentaar in het Engels van Bart Hordijk, valuta-analist bij Monex Europe, op de persconferentie van Jerome Powell waarin hij een toelichting gaf op het monetaire beleid van de Fed.

Jerome Powell was a bit of a broken record with the amount of mentions of “cross currents”, by which he referred to global economic headwinds like the trade war, Brexit, the government shutdown, the economic slowdown in the Eurozone and China, to name a few. Also, Powell did acknowledge that inflation pressures have not been as strong as expected, which is a dovish statement. This dovish vibe is strengthened by Powell saying that risk appetites have returned back to long term levels, which lessens one of the biggest risks of having a loose policy for too long. This would open the door to sustaining loose monetary policies for longer.

The circumstantial evidence, like global developments, indeed points toward a more dovish Fed.  Nevertheless, the more direct evidence like the tight labour market data and output data are still supportive of a hawkish Fed. The focus of Powell during the press conference on these “new”negative risks makes sense, as they have more recently escalated. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean the Fed will lose sight of the bigger picture as mentioned in the beige book of a tight labour market, wage pressures that are spread over the country, industries and different levels of positions.

Therefore we think Jerome Powell may have kicked a dovish door open, but that doesn’t yet mean the Fed will directly step through it. The Fed at the moment is patient enough to wait for the mist of recent uncertainties to lift before it changes direction. Two rate hikes in the second half of 2019 therefore still seem all to play for.

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