"I remember going, one winter's night, to request an audience with the Great Sphinx of Egypt, under the full moon."

Pierre Loti: Voyages

Had he been able to break his millennia-old silence, he would surely have warned me of the region's growing geopolitical risk. No doubt he would also have mentioned the inflation risk linked with rising commodity prices. There is a partial correlation between the two. The increase in commodity prices stems from a combination of three phenomena: first of all, the global economic recovery, which pushes up demand. Let us not forget that the global economy grew by 5.5% in purchasing power parity last year; 3.9% at nominal exchange rates. Particularly harsh weather caused by La Niña accelerated this growth, as did speculation, fuelled by massive liquidity resulting from United States' reflationary monetary policy.